Argentina -. Preview and Match Prediction

15 julio. 03:00. Miami. Estadio Hard Rock
Copa America.

<>Where to Watch: MEGOGO

Suspended: Daniel Munoz (ombia)

In the night from Sunday to Monday, by Kiev time, the winner of Copa 2024 will be determined. The title will be contested by the national teams of Argentina and Colombia. For the Argentines, this is a record-breaking 30th appearance in the final in the history of Copa, while for Colombians, it’s only the third. They won the competition only once, in 2001, while Argentina triumphed 15 times. The same number of wins as Uruguay, so if Lionel Scaloni’s team wins, they will become the Copa America record holder. Of course, it would have been very beautiful if Argentina met Uruguay in the final, but Colombia had its say and did not allow Marcelo Bielsa’s proteges to compete for the trophy.

Argentina

In the five matches played in the tournament, the Argentines have conceded only one goal so far – in a nervous quarter-final game against Ecuador. It ended in a 1-1 draw thanks to a late goal by Ecuadorian Kevin Rodriguez from Belgian side Union, so everything was decided after-match penalties. Lionel Messi missed the first penalty, but his teammates – and especially goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez – saved him. In the semifinals, the Albiceleste comfortably dealt with the tournament’s surprise team Canada, and finally Lionel Messi scored his first goal in Copa America 2024. This goal was the 109th for the Golden Ball holder for his national team, surpassing Iranian Ali Daei. Only Cristiano Ronaldo is ahead.

Thus, the unbeaten streak of the Argentines in all competitions (including friendly matches) has reached 10. Scaloni stated that the path of his team to the final was not strewn with rose petals and praised the players for overcoming ‘extremely tough’ challenges. Personally, apart from the match against Ecuador, I don’t see what extraordinary difficulties Mr. Lionel is talking about, but he knows better in any case.

There will be no motivation issues for the Argentines in the final. Not only do they need to confirm their title (remember that Albiceleste are the current champions of Copa America), not only is there usually no need for motivation in the final, not only do they need to overtake Uruguay in the number of victories – they also need to properly bid farewell to Angel Di Maria. If there are no unforeseen circumstances, the Benfica player will play his 145th and last match for Argentina.

In the semifinals of the last Copa in 2021, Argentina only managed to beat Colombia in a penalty shootout. Overall, the opponents have faced each other 43 times in all competitions, with Argentines winning 26 of them.

Colombia

After defeating Uruguay in a tough semifinal match (1-0), the best player of the match James Rodriguez cried tears of joy. ‘I’ve been waiting for this for 13 years,’ said the captain of Colombia, referring to his team’s qualification for the final. Indeed, it’s been 13 years since Colombia last played in the decisive match of Copa America – since they won their first and so far only title of Copa America champions in Mexico in 2001 (and that Copa was held in Colombia). The 32-year-old James is experiencing a second youth: he has six assists in the tournament. It’s not surprising that Scaloni separately noted Rodriguez’s form and the need for his close attention.

If the undefeated streak of the Argentine national team lasting 10 matches has been mentioned above, it should also be noted that Colombia have not lost in 28 matches, winning 22 of them. The streak started with the defeat against Argentina in the World Cup 2022 qualification. Nestor Lorenzo, the Argentine coach of Colombia, has yet to taste the bitterness of defeat with his team. The match against his native team, with whom he became a vice-world champion in 1990, will be special for Lorenzo, of course. But he needs to remember that in the 21st century, Colombians have only beaten Argentina three times, so they will take the field not as outsiders, but definitely as underdogs.

However, former Los Cafeteros striker Adolfo Valencia believes that there is nothing to fear from the Argentines and Lionel Messi personally. ‘This is not the Messi who played for Barcelona and dribbled past five or six players at once. With age, he lost speed and strength,’ Valencia believes. ‘And Di Maria is not the same either. Now any decent defender can mark them, our young guys can handle the Argentine leaders. I respect Messi and have always been his fan, but we need to face the truth.’ A strong statement, but it must be acknowledged that Mr. Adolfo has reasons to say so.

Argentina – Colombia: Probable Lineups

Argentina has no injury or suspension problems. Messi, whose participation in the semi-final against Canada was in question, is fully ready to play. Colombians will be without Crystal Palace’s Daniel Munoz, who was sent off in the game against Uruguay. He will be replaced by Santiago Arias.

Argentina – Colombia: Author’s Prediction

The Opta supercomputer gives Scaloni’s team a 62.9% chance of retaining the Copa America champions title. Bookmakers also consider the Argentines as favorites to win the match – they offer odds of 2.22 for their clean victory, while the odds for a Colombian win are twice as high, 4.45. Moreover: despite all the successes and achievements of James Rodriguez, who sets up goals for his teammates, a very high odds of 1.72 are offered for one Colombian goal. I think it’s worth placing a bet on this. Los Cafeteros have scored in every match of Copa America 2024, their attack has great potential and can certainly cope with the Argentine defense. Whether it will be enough for the final success remains unclear, but a 1-1 draw in regular time may become a reality.