Orda – Shakhtar. Preview and Match Prediction

OLIMPBET-Premier Liga. 1st round. March 2. Shymkent. Central Stadium named after Kajimukan Munaitpasov. 13:30.

Orda (Shymkent) – Shakhtar (Karaganda)

Where to watch: Q Arena

Last season, Orda secured a historic – debut for themselves – KPL championship on the final matchday, precisely in a home game against Shakhtar, who had nothing to play for (no relegation threat). Now, the slightly strengthened team of Alexander Sednev will start their title defense campaign with the same home match against Shakhtar, who definitely did not get stronger during the offseason. On the other hand, the quality of the field in Shymkent may now play in favor of the Karaganda team. Or maybe not.

Orda – Shakhtar: bookmakers’ odds

Orda

It’s interesting how the Orda coaching staff planned the season preparation, considering the team’s debut in the Champions League? Last season, Astana’s messy European campaign perhaps contributed to the KPL gold heading to Shymkent for the first time in history, and it’s unlikely that Alexander Sednev’s coaching staff intends to repeat the same mistakes as the Astana team. For this, it’s probably necessary to start the championship season quickly, have sufficient squad depth, and distribute forces wisely over the distance. At least, for the first point, it’s already necessary to have productive offseason preparations.

Can Orda’s participation in the winter tournament in Turkey named after a popular bookmaker, and then the Kazakhstan Super Cup match against Tobol be considered relevant? Well, maybe yes, because three games (before the ‘double-header’ against Tobol, there was also a victory over KPL newcomer Elimai) served as a way to gradually get into the season, gaining playing tone and conditioning. But not entirely (a straightforward ‘no’ in this case is probably a slight exaggeration), as Alexander Sednev tried to maximize the existing squad, plus injuries to key players like Bauyrzhan Islamkhan, and a few newcomers in Orda likely not fully adapted to the new team. And, by the way, the Kazakhstan Super Cup remained with Tobol, where the yellow-green team looked fairly decent in the game, especially for the end of February – the team from Kostanay had the chance to decide the match in regulation time, but Orda was saved by Shaizada.

Shakhtar

The team from Karaganda lost their charismatic goalkeeper Igor Shatsky to Aktobe, along with coach Valery Sitalo (by the way, Igor Trofimets also returned there). Now, Egor Tsyprikov will have an excellent opportunity to carry the team through the season much like Shatsky did. The battles in other positions are not as clear-cut: defenders Ryazhuk and Stamenkovich have been added, with no major changes upfront. Colombian Juan Asprilla and Georgian Imeda Ashortia will try to replace Ivan Sviridov and Temur Chogadze in attack. The role of Igor Soloshenko in replacing the core players like Stefan Bukoratsa and Yuri Perzukha remains uncertain. And it’s good that veteran Roger Canas stayed in Karaganda, as without him, it could have been much gloomier.

Orda – Shakhtar: probable lineups

Shymkent fans already have a rough idea of Alexander Sednev’s current Orda squad – structurally similar, with some positional changes. On the other hand, Shakhtar, in the updated version, still remains somewhat of a mystery – how will the trio of Ryazhuk-Tolordava-Stamenkovich perform in central defense, and the duo Asprilla-Ashortia upfront? Will Igor Soloshenko trust the young talents more – with the return of Aibar Abdulla and Dmitry Bacheck? The initial rounds will clarify many aspects, but most likely, Shakhtar will once again be fighting for survival in the KPL.

Orda – Shakhtar: author’s prediction

In the upcoming match, much will depend on whether Orda can score an early goal and then calmly control the game. Whether through ball possession or spatial control – the quality of the pitch at the main stadium in Shymkent may come into play, but the hosts are more likely to have a better chance to score from open play and set-pieces, and then build on that success. It could be considered to bet on Orda’s victory in the first half and overall to increase the odds, as bookmakers see the hosts as clear favorites. Alternatively, for odds around 2, betting on seeing two or three goals might be a good option.