Tob – Zhenis. Preview and match forecast

OLIMPBET-Premier League. 6th round. April 27. Kostanay. ‘Tobyl Arena’. 12:00.

‘Tobol’ (Kostanay) – ‘Zhenis’ (Astana)

Where to watch: ‘QazSport HD’

After a strong thriller with ‘Astana’ in Almaty, Kostanay players host the second capital team: ‘Zhenis’ in the previous round improved their tournament position, narrowly defeating ‘Turan’. Although, according to the coach of the Turkistan team (and former coach of ‘Zhenis’, do not forget), Rinat Alyuetov – it’s not entirely predictable. And now between ‘Tobol’ and ‘Zhenis’ – just two points in the KPL-2024 standings.

‘Tobol’ – ‘Zhenis’: bookmaker odds

‘Tobol’

The proteges of Milic Churcic had a tough match with ‘Astana’, in which they could have aimed for more than just one point. However, looking at the match in terms of the quantity, quality, and timing of missed opportunities. The most obvious example – Gabaraev hit the post after Ivanovich’s cross from the penalty area, right after ‘Tobol’ took the lead (Alyun scored another Ivanovich cross, but from a corner) – and at 2-0, it would have been much more comfortable for the ‘yellow-greens’. But in the end, Alyun’s disagreement with Asrankulov, along with Pokatilov’s adventurous exit, led to Thomasov’s goal. The second time in the match ‘Astana’ equalized in injury time – Thomasov crossed from the corner on the left, and the not very tall Basmanov, as if remembering the previous season, scored with a header – 2-2! But that’s not all: Valiullin’s goal, on the fifth (!) injury minute, was canceled by referee Denis Izmaylov after a video review – VAR spotted a foul in the attack. The second consecutive away draw for ‘Tobol’ turned out to be quite different than in Petropavlovsk – against ‘Kyzylzhar’, Kostanay players created fewer dangerous moments and made fewer critical errors (Thomasov’s goal). And they rather earned a point than lost two.

However, on their home turf, ‘Tobol’ is still impeccable – six points and six goals in two matches, and both ‘Turan’ and ‘Elimai’ cannot be considered ‘soft’ opponents. The Turkistan team had moments in the first half with a scoreline of 0-0, and the main problems for the family footballers began when Andrey Karpovich’s charges were reduced to ten men. In equal numbers, ‘Elimai’ scored twice – a warning sign for Milic Churcic’s team, which is also playing football itself and allows the opponent to play? By the way, such a style is also more comfortable for ‘Zhenis’ than not.

‘Zhenis’

The players under Levan Korgalidze also try to play combination football, rather than a combination of ‘parking the bus’ and ‘hit and run’, but it is fair to say, with variable success. On the one hand, two goals brought two minimal victories, and in the previous round, Denis Grechiko scored against ‘Turan’ in an effective manner. On the other hand, the capital footballers conceded nine goals from ‘Astana’, ‘Kyzylzhar’, and ‘Aktobe’, who skillfully exploited both individual mistakes of ‘Zhenis’ players (more applicable to ‘Aktobe’) and team mistakes (more to ‘Kyzylzhar’). Perhaps it is not necessary to guess too much to conclude that the current ‘Tobol’ is closer in level to ‘Zhenis’s’ upset, than to ‘Shakhter’ and ‘Turan’?

At the same time, the capital team, having the worst defense in the league, is looking for new options in attack! The departure of Brazilian Kleber was attempted to compensate with quantity: winger Alexander Jacobsen has already arrived and debuted, and Vlad Prokopenko moved from ‘Astana’ for game practice and development. Both have already made their debut, although they have not yet fully formed a coherent impression. Unlike goalkeeper Temirlan Anarbekov – on loan from ‘Kairat’, the goalkeeper might have been the best player in the team in both the Cup with ‘Astana’ and the championship with ‘Shakhter’.

‘Tobol’ – ‘Zhenis’: tentative lineups

Against ‘Astana’, Kostanay players were able to observe a funny attack transformation, where Ivanovich played as a striker, and in defense, the towering Gabaraev replaced Tapalov – and Albert almost scored. However, against ‘Zhenis’, Albert may again sit ‘on the bench’ – in favor of Tapalov (size is not as prioritized as dribbling and forward involvement), and Eneny is more comfortable playing at the front, rather than Ivanovich. And from ‘Zhenis’, one can expect at least the return of Karagunis and a classic 4-2-3-1 formation, mirroring the Kostanay team’s formation.

‘Tobol’ – ‘Zhenis’: author’s forecast

Bookmakers consider Kostanay players clear favorites, significantly ‘skewing’ the line in favor of the hosts. But since ‘Tobol’ remains vulnerable in defense – especially in the zones between the central and flank defenders – a large part of ‘Astana’s’ sharpness came from there. In this regard, it may be very risky, but also pleasant to catch a high odds on both teams to score – both ‘Tobol’ and ‘Maktaaral’ have good executioners in the attacking group and this can have an impact.