Shakhtar – Kaisar. Match preview and prediction

OLIMPBET-Premier Liga. Matchday 7. May 5th. Karaganda. Shakhtar Stadium. 17:00.

Shakhtar (Karaganda) – Kaisar (Kyzylorda)

Where to watch: Q Football

The next round of the KPL will end with a match of outsiders in Karaganda – where a victory is very much needed for both the ‘miners’, who have lost four out of five matches played, as well as the ‘wolves’, to extend their unbeaten streak to three matches. Last season, the Kyzylorda team was one of the best away teams in the league, but now Victor Kumykov is trying to change the formation of his team, switching from three center-backs and two full-backs to an attacking 4-3-3 formation. Meanwhile, Andrei Finochenko, who replaced Igor Soloshenko after a poor start to the season, on the contrary, has opted for a more defensive formation. But both coaches, so far, have had mixed success.

Shakhtar – Kaisar: bookmaker odds

Shakhtar

It is worth reminding that Andrei Finochenko replaced Igor Soloshenko at the helm of the Karaganda team after three losses in the first three matches with a total score of 0:8 – and the effect of the coaching change, plus the subsequent change in formation, fully manifested itself in the home match against Astana. In which things could have gone slightly differently, when after a goal by Kanyas, Astana had chances to quickly equalize, and then attempt to turn the game in their favor. However, Shakhtar not only defended but also counterattacked sharply – and if it wasn’t for Chondrich in the Astana goal, Finochenko’s first win could have been more convincing.

However, it’s one thing to beat Astana, which could have underestimated the opponent, and expect a slightly different style of play from Shakhtar, assuming that the new coach will not change anything. And quite another – to face solid Elimay in the Cup (although it is not a fact that the miners had and will have cup objectives – in both tournaments), and then play in Taldykorgan against Zhetysu, who primarily intend to defend and only then look for free zones on counters. In this case, Shakhtar under Andrei Finochenko received, not so much two weighty blows – rather, a direction for further movement. Moreover, the Semirechens showed quite clearly that there is still a lot of work to be done in Karaganda – in defense, transition phases, and positional attacks. And in this case, the match with Kaisar, after the break, should be perceived in the context of possible progress for the team – whether they have made it or if the ‘miners’ have plateaued at one level? Not a high level, judging by the team’s position in the league table.

Kaisar

For Victor Kumykov’s team, the situation is generally similar to Karaganda’s – after three straight losses at the start, with six goals conceded in two home matches and a minimal defeat in Pavlodar against Elimay, Kyzylorda first managed to bounce back in the home game against Atyrau, and then secured their first victory – narrowly defeating Kairat at home, thanks to Zhaksylykov’s goal in stoppage time. By and large, the victory was achieved through a combination of huge luck, together with the persistence of the ‘wolves’ forward, and due to a technical mistake by Almaty’s goalkeeper Danila Ustimenko when receiving the ball – which, in fact, triggered the goal-scoring episode. Perhaps a goalless draw would have been a more logical result – and in this case, Kaisar would have remained at the bottom of the KPL-2024 table. And, equally importantly, having played four out of five matches at home. In Kazakh football realities, this is already a certain problem.

But in the end, things turned out more favorably for Kaisar – the first victory can add confidence to the team in the chosen path. It may also conceal problems in the attack: the ‘wolves’ score few goals, two out of three goals – in stoppage time, and Gromyko’s goal against Atyrau – rather a result of Valeri’s individual skill (he was close to scoring against Kairat too, shooting from an unusual position – Ustimenko saved), than collective play. However, questions remain for Victor Kumykov’s charges: first of all – what is Kaisar capable of away from home?

Shakhtar – Kaisar: probable lineups

In the match against the Semirechens, the Shakhtar coaching staff reintroduced Tolordava to the lineup – and Anton managed to ‘bring’, not a goal, but a penalty into Tsyprikov’s goal (although with Serikzhan Mujikov in the squad of Zhetysu – why not a goal?). Probably, the Georgian center-back will once again sit on the bench, Tyluba will play as the third center-back, and on the right, Alishauskas will likely start, rather than Savkiv or someone else (theoretically, Nazymhanov could also be running there – in the central area, there will be a substitution for Abilakhana in any case). In the last few rounds, Kaisar’s lineup has stabilized: Payovich with Yudenkov formed a center-back duo, Miloyko – a ‘wave cutter’, Gromyko found his groove, playing effectively as an inside midfielder. It is unlikely that Victor Kumykov will make any significant changes in Karaganda, regardless of the fact that super veteran Sakhalbaev ended up on the bench in this scenario.

Shakhtar – Kaisar: author’s prediction

Bookmakers do not see a clear favorite in the match, which could well be ‘a game of three results and two totals’. Perhaps the battle on the field may be even more intense than the football itself – this stems from the style and orientation of the ‘wolves’ towards set positions. But Shakhtar could also consciously give the ball to the guests and focus on counterattacks. Moreover, the familiarity of the Karaganda team with their home ground could play in their favor – and in the pre-match, one could consider starting with ‘Shakhtar to win to nil’ as the first option, and all the most interesting parts regarding goals and totals (and optionally, regarding red cards and penalties) could be attempted to be caught live.